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The Quantum View

A recurring perspective on the evolving pension landscape 

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Sam Hartmann, FSA, EA

Partner

3 De-Risking Opportunities Sponsors Face at 80 to 90 Percent Funded and How Targeted Settlement Strategies Can Lock In Progress

  • Feb 27
  • 3 min read

Hitting 80–90% funded feels like a turning point for many pension sponsors. It represents real progress after years of effort. But it can also be a dangerous comfort zone, because most of the risk is still on the table and recent gains can disappear faster than many expect.


Many sponsors feel comfortable once they reach this level. In reality, plans in the 80 to 90 percent range often carry concentrated risk. Volatility still matters, PBGC premiums remain significant, and a single bad year can erase years of progress if there is no strategy to convert gains into something permanent.


Below are three common opportunities we see sponsors have at this stage, along with practical ways targeted settlement strategies can help reduce volatility and long-term PBGC premium drag.


Opportunity One: Avoiding the Assumption That the Remaining Gap Will Close on Its Own


Sponsors often assume that once a plan reaches 80 to 90 percent funded, markets and contributions will naturally close the remaining gap. The problem is that volatility still dominates outcomes. A modest decline in interest rates or a market pullback can quickly reduce funded status.


What is often missing is a plan to lock in gains as they occur. Settlement strategies that reduce non-strategic liabilities, such as small benefit retirees or terminated vested participants, can permanently shrink the portion of the plan exposed to rate and market swings. Instead of hoping gains stick, sponsors actively convert progress into something durable.


Opportunity Two: Treating De-Risking as a Process, Not a One-Time Event


Many sponsors think of de-risking as a one-time event once the plan is fully funded. Waiting often concentrates risk and increases execution challenges.


The most effective strategies are planned early and executed incrementally. Partial settlements reduce volatility now while preserving flexibility for future actions. This staged approach improves outcomes, lowers execution risk, and allows sponsors to act opportunistically rather than reactively.


Opportunity Three: Reducing Ongoing PBGC Expense Drag


PBGC premiums are often treated as a fixed cost of maintaining a pension plan. In reality, they create a recurring cash drag with no strategic upside.


For plan years beginning in 2026, the flat-rate premium is $111 per participant (up from $106 in 2025). For plans with large populations, this represents a meaningful ongoing expense even before variable premiums tied to unfunded vested benefits are considered. Plans lingering in the 80–90% range for years can rack up millions in premiums while still bearing substantial risk.


Contributions alone do not always reduce PBGC costs as efficiently as expected, particularly when interest rate movements and liability growth offset funding progress.


Targeted settlement strategies can reduce PBGC exposure more directly by shrinking participant counts and removing specific cohorts of vested liabilities from the plan. This converts funded status progress into a permanent reduction in ongoing PBGC expense and long term cost drag.


Turning Progress Into Permanence


Targeted settlement strategies are not about rushing to terminate a plan. They are about making selective, well-timed moves that reduce volatility, stabilize cash flows, and control long-term costs.


A more helpful question than are we doing okay is which risks are we still carrying and which ones can we permanently remove.


For many sponsors, the next step is a short scenario analysis to understand potential participant reduction, PBGC savings, and funded status impact. There is no commitment involved, just clarity. Even relatively small actions at this stage can have a meaningful effect on a plan’s efficiency and long-term cost structure.


If you would like to see how your plan might benefit from targeted settlements, a brief advisory review can help outline options and tradeoffs with no obligation.

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